Chena Professor Patrick, Master of Arts and PhD in Political Science from the University of Alberta, I do get quick analysis in a paper vuelapluma made, the latest survey by the CEP . Tontilandia survey that is not over stressed, has a status similar to the prophecies of the Delphic oracle. Here are his judicious reflections, which I quote verbatim, without implying, of course, that the full share:
● Piñera stagnant and without proposals. When you Twitter astute forecast by 38 percent (ie, one point more than in the previous CEP which contained with 37), the hard reality Sebastián Piñera ranked two spots below these expectations, with 36% percent that smells of stagnation and lack of proposals and prominence. It is worth remembering, moreover, that the CEP survey November / December 2008, the investor who wants to be President Frei surpassed by the same distance by which now exceeds ten points, with the difference that time was installed in a solid 41 to 31, and not the poor from 36 to 26 today. Another interesting comparative data: When respondents were asked, who do you, regardless of their preferences, which will be next President of Chile, 51% of Chileans believed that the man who tricolor fringe bind it on his torso would Piñera, while only 5% thought it could be Frei. Of course at that time Marco Enríquez-Ominami and dreamed of making entry into the stage, and there were two other strong contenders in match: Ricardo Lagos and José Miguel Insulza. Oh, and a Mr. Farkas, who had a 2% excited to see him in La Moneda ... Today, however, 49% believe they will win Piñera, a 27% stake by Eduardo Frei, and 8% play their chips to the ME-O option. ● Setting
peaking and looking for his destiny . Was an open secret in the command of former socialist deputy in the CEP survey, which began field work in October, was not going to be fine. "I go to shit", say some who confided to his intimates. So favored an international tour through the neighborhood, whose goal was to show statesmanship size and "big dog" at the expense of the hardworking door to door and make the land work. Already on the eve of that unveil the great enigma, people close to Marco, who boasts of moving like a fish in water in the world of social networks and the Facebook universe, launched air balloon test an estimate I showed up four points (from 17 to 21), while Frei and Piñera remained more or less stuck to their brands, with 38 and 27, compared with 37 and 28 earlier. Marco, no doubt, is the "new year" in this election, but gives the impression that was projected with great force, from the time of its sudden onset, but then, as a sort of brilliant fireworks , lost propulsion and can not go to heaven the second round dream. ●
Frei and the theory of "the Indian atrasito pica" . Let us state clearly and without euphemism: if Senator Eduardo Frei read the polls and their predictions as if they were the truth revealed Today he is not the candidate of the Concertación. When asked last year to the Chileans, who they thought would win if elections were internal to the coalition's presidential candidate, Ricardo Lagos exceeded by several bodies Frei distance. And while only five hundred respondents had confidence in the senator DC could re-occupy the presidential chair, 11 out of every hundred thought Lagos was in better position to repeat the asparagus. In other words, Frei is a resilient assigned a high value on consistency and perseverance in politics, though this may seem a feature "conservative" to some.
Some preliminary conclusions:
1) It seems foolhardy, if not untenable, think that the right can win in a country where all the surveys show that people want more government, not less regulator. Especially from an economic crisis that grew out of the market that spread without any control from the center to the periphery of the globalized world, and that led to the derivative or "toxic assets." seems impossible that it intends to claim the victory right in a country where the government of President Michelle Bachelet concludes its management with a 78% approval , and political figures Top rated Bachelet called first, then Andres Velasco, José Miguel Insulza, Marco Enríquez-Ominami (with all its contradictions, but also expressing a strong desire to spare) and Ricardo Lagos.
2) As the memoirist Funes, legendary character of Borges, I attach great importance to the historical reference. Let me therefore other data from the recent past that I consider relevant. CEP survey in October / November 2005, these were the omens that arose: Bachelet, 38.4%; Piñera, 22%; Lavin, 19.4%, Hirsch, 3.9%; Null, 10.1 % White, 5.5%. Ie the two candidates of the Alliance together accounted for four years a respectable 41.4% of preferences against the top anyway 42.3% of the votes to block-Hirsch Bachelet, who was not, however, the same consistency or ideological affinity. (In fact, Hirsch, who is now with Marco, called not to vote for Bachelet in the second round, hanging from its communist allies.) And we all know how the story ended ... So it's premature, I think, make merry accounts, as some take right now.
3) I think the pineapple is wrong, so fatal to his claims, by inflating a bowler hat, through the media complex that is similar (basically the duopoly El Mercurio, La Tercera), nominated by Marco Enríquez-Ominami . They did so guided by the premise that everything was good complicate Frei. But seemed unaware that Marco, with its proposed generation gap and "tabula rasa " in the style of Catiline in Rome, also stole the eagle eggs from the Alliance. And those eggs stolen can tip the balance against you, tomorrow.
4) The unusual role of Marcus also meant to steal camera Piñera, and move the center of the political scene . Recall that the only time the right was on the verge of defeating the center-left bloc dominant in the last twenty years post-dictatorship, was when Lavin took over the discourse of change, and that meant that in the second round Lagos managed to win just a difference of 30 thousand votes. Now NATO has practically no speech or proposal itself. Limited to lament Velasco access the page Frei command while the budget debate in Congress. And gets involved in splitting hairs about whether incorporated or not in a gay couple in television time. Question that bothers - and how! - The soul that breeds fundamentalism in their midst.
5) It is paradoxical that Marco is presented, in light of the figures, as the best option against Piñera Frei, on the stage of "second ballot." This is indeed the case, because the numbers indicate that he arrived in this instance, would get 37% versus 40% for Piñera, while in the case of Frei access to the second round (which is the most feasible alternative According to the survey CEP), it would reach the same floor, 37%, but would stand six points behind Piñera, which is marked by 43 percent. What irony of this whole story? The competitive framework is based largely on their ideological ambiguity in the substantive issues (the son of Miguel Enriquez was in favor of privatizing part Codelco and fear not, for instance, accompanying a candidate for the UDI to a public ...). It is no coincidence, for example, the survey says that 54% of Frei's supporters would be willing to vote for ME-O in the second round, and only 12% would give their vote to Piñera. While in the case of the followers of Marcus, things are much more divided: 39% would vote for Frei and 29% would vote for Piñera.
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