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Chile and Peru: Brothers in Arms


The relations between Chile and Peru have entered a new phase of tension following the apparent unmasking, in Lima, an officer of the Peruvian Air Force in name Victor Ariza, who, according to a report the government of Alan Garcia, was spying for an intelligence network monitored from Santiago.

The theme would be just an anecdote or a footnote in the history of relations between both countries but it was because the government decided to escalate the matter Lima, taking it to the headlines, the future summit of UNASUR and where they can, through a sustained media campaign, including interviews Wholesale Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Garcia Belaunde, and his defense minister, Rafael Rey.

At the same time, antiarmamentista Lima is promoting a campaign on the continent, to send ministers to various capitals in order to spread his idea of \u200b\u200ba "nonaggression pact" between Latin American countries, which would aim to reallocate resources now spent on weapons to fight poverty and inequality.

Commended goal, no doubt, but was critical because while the arms of Chile which is litigating in the Court in The Hague on the issue of maritime delimitation. So his pacifist crusade is not purely altruistic and selfless. Has a name, and its objective is to neutralize a very concrete threat, stirred by nationalist Rimac, who suspect that Chile can not ignore an eventual ruling against them and resort to arms to defend their position at all costs.

It certainly ask some questions. Was it proper for Santiago, as a first reaction to the incident, postulating that "Chile does not spy," thereby attempting to close the subject? I fear not, because the truth is that in the world of international relations is an accepted fact that espionage or intelligence part of the game. And a country that is deprived of that option, probably could even be accused of being irresponsible for refusing to have antennas that allow you to know what's happening in your neighborhood and around.

espionage, despite its bad press, or the idealization cheaper than it is in the James Bond films, contributes to a system of checks and mutual supervision among countries, which ultimately ends to ensure a balance, as it brings out intentions threatening. The delivery of the atomic bomb secrets U.S. by agents such as Klaus Fuchs to the Soviet Union, contributed, as paradoxical as it may sound, a balance of forces for a long time ensured world peace. And similarly, other examples.

The problem is not spying, but get caught ...

The problem is not spying, something they do all countries, as recognized by the Bolivian minister, who got a bit of sanity in the midst of this absurd comedy of errors. The downside is that getting caught, and once that happened, things do not end, as industry codes ordered en warnings " sotto voce," but in public complaints or on orders of explanation. What is not listed in any of the manuals of intelligence or "recontraespionaje," as the Super Agent 86.

Another question that has become clearer with the passage of time is as follows: the government pretended mess Alan Garcia's recent APEC summit in Singapore with his bombastic denunciation? Evidently not. That same Garcia was surprised by the leak of the news of the arrest the officer Ariza, because, as you said Garcia Belaunde, this report favored the flight abroad of other Peruvians involved in the case. And while the possibility of laying a trap to the alleged "control" Chilean Ariza, exposing them harder.

And here is where it is recalled that the President of Peru was temporarily in charge of Admiral Luis Giampetri, a retired admiral of past Fujimori, who holds the post of vice president and, therefore, takes the baton of command in the absence of Garcia, at the time that someone in high places of Peru, decided to "break" the issue of espionage and put them together to Michelle Bachelet and Alan García in serious trouble.

The lessons that emerge from all this are clear: there is "internal" policies that are put into play masked under the guise of foreign policy of the countries involved. What in the Peruvian case seems to be more evident than in the Chilean case. Considering that Chile is on the verge of a crucial presidential election, it seems that there are certain sectors in Peru who want to exercise the "right to vote in Chilean elections, trying to force a hysteric nationalist backlash.

Yet it would not have saved ammunition. Trying to President Bachelet of "Conchuda" in the headline of a tabloid newspaper, and then giving vague and confusing explanations semantics. And now waving the flag of a country spied on by the "jealous neighbor" (the words of President Alan Garcia, whose political program is basically emulate Chile, and from there, if possible, surpass).

The danger is that the escalation bombastic and offensive seems to have no end. Leo in the Brazilian daily Folha de Sao Paulo "an interview with Peruvian analysts to explain the tension due to the high penetration of Chile in the Peruvian economy. Ingenious theory, no doubt. The owner of the box is this: "Chilean economic Invasion is fuel for bilateral tension." And in the main note, Garcia Belaunde recalled that Chile is the "fifth or sixth largest foreign investor in Peru." Before

absurd size, Chile should remember that Peru has not proceeded in the same way when intelligence has detected Lima actions (in the case discovered a short time ago, got the failed spy on the border, along with a "doing take this", but was not biggest question of the case).

It should perhaps also recall the methods by which the confession was started Peruvian suspected spies acting under the orders of Chile (on You Tube is hanging the interesting testimony of the alleged spy's daughter Julio Vargas Garayar also NCO the FAP, executed in 1979), to see if they are unsuited to any kind of legal action more or less civilized.

Anyway, why go ... And if you are bothered investments, missing again, it is only a matter of realizing it, so that capital in general, no country, take other courses healthier than Rimac.

After all, someone in Chile would think that if a country that today is weak, comparatively speaking, with a per capita income of $ 8 000 to 15 thousand of Chile, is allowed to speak with the insolence and aggressiveness with which Lima has spoken against its southern neighbor, what else would you expect from a hypothetical country stronger in the future that would have benefited from the naive investment of Chileans.

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Why will win Frei


Chena Professor Patrick, Master of Arts and PhD in Political Science from the University of Alberta, I do get quick analysis in a paper vuelapluma made, the latest survey by the CEP . Tontilandia survey that is not over stressed, has a status similar to the prophecies of the Delphic oracle. Here are his judicious reflections, which I quote verbatim, without implying, of course, that the full share:

● Piñera stagnant and without proposals. When you Twitter astute forecast by 38 percent (ie, one point more than in the previous CEP which contained with 37), the hard reality Sebastián Piñera ranked two spots below these expectations, with 36% percent that smells of stagnation and lack of proposals and prominence. It is worth remembering, moreover, that the CEP survey November / December 2008, the investor who wants to be President Frei surpassed by the same distance by which now exceeds ten points, with the difference that time was installed in a solid 41 to 31, and not the poor from 36 to 26 today. Another interesting comparative data: When respondents were asked, who do you, regardless of their preferences, which will be next President of Chile, 51% of Chileans believed that the man who tricolor fringe bind it on his torso would Piñera, while only 5% thought it could be Frei. Of course at that time Marco Enríquez-Ominami and dreamed of making entry into the stage, and there were two other strong contenders in match: Ricardo Lagos and José Miguel Insulza. Oh, and a Mr. Farkas, who had a 2% excited to see him in La Moneda ... Today, however, 49% believe they will win Piñera, a 27% stake by Eduardo Frei, and 8% play their chips to the ME-O option. ● Setting

peaking and looking for his destiny . Was an open secret in the command of former socialist deputy in the CEP survey, which began field work in October, was not going to be fine. "I go to shit", say some who confided to his intimates. So favored an international tour through the neighborhood, whose goal was to show statesmanship size and "big dog" at the expense of the hardworking door to door and make the land work. Already on the eve of that unveil the great enigma, people close to Marco, who boasts of moving like a fish in water in the world of social networks and the Facebook universe, launched air balloon test an estimate I showed up four points (from 17 to 21), while Frei and Piñera remained more or less stuck to their brands, with 38 and 27, compared with 37 and 28 earlier. Marco, no doubt, is the "new year" in this election, but gives the impression that was projected with great force, from the time of its sudden onset, but then, as a sort of brilliant fireworks , lost propulsion and can not go to heaven the second round dream. ●

Frei and the theory of "the Indian atrasito pica" . Let us state clearly and without euphemism: if Senator Eduardo Frei read the polls and their predictions as if they were the truth revealed Today he is not the candidate of the Concertación. When asked last year to the Chileans, who they thought would win if elections were internal to the coalition's presidential candidate, Ricardo Lagos exceeded by several bodies Frei distance. And while only five hundred respondents had confidence in the senator DC could re-occupy the presidential chair, 11 out of every hundred thought Lagos was in better position to repeat the asparagus. In other words, Frei is a resilient assigned a high value on consistency and perseverance in politics, though this may seem a feature "conservative" to some.

Some preliminary conclusions:

1) It seems foolhardy, if not untenable, think that the right can win in a country where all the surveys show that people want more government, not less regulator. Especially from an economic crisis that grew out of the market that spread without any control from the center to the periphery of the globalized world, and that led to the derivative or "toxic assets." seems impossible that it intends to claim the victory right in a country where the government of President Michelle Bachelet concludes its management with a 78% approval , and political figures Top rated Bachelet called first, then Andres Velasco, José Miguel Insulza, Marco Enríquez-Ominami (with all its contradictions, but also expressing a strong desire to spare) and Ricardo Lagos.

2) As the memoirist Funes, legendary character of Borges, I attach great importance to the historical reference. Let me therefore other data from the recent past that I consider relevant. CEP survey in October / November 2005, these were the omens that arose: Bachelet, 38.4%; Piñera, 22%; Lavin, 19.4%, Hirsch, 3.9%; Null, 10.1 % White, 5.5%. Ie the two candidates of the Alliance together accounted for four years a respectable 41.4% of preferences against the top anyway 42.3% of the votes to block-Hirsch Bachelet, who was not, however, the same consistency or ideological affinity. (In fact, Hirsch, who is now with Marco, called not to vote for Bachelet in the second round, hanging from its communist allies.) And we all know how the story ended ... So it's premature, I think, make merry accounts, as some take right now.

3) I think the pineapple is wrong, so fatal to his claims, by inflating a bowler hat, through the media complex that is similar (basically the duopoly El Mercurio, La Tercera), nominated by Marco Enríquez-Ominami . They did so guided by the premise that everything was good complicate Frei. But seemed unaware that Marco, with its proposed generation gap and "tabula rasa " in the style of Catiline in Rome, also stole the eagle eggs from the Alliance. And those eggs stolen can tip the balance against you, tomorrow.

4) The unusual role of Marcus also meant to steal camera Piñera, and move the center of the political scene . Recall that the only time the right was on the verge of defeating the center-left bloc dominant in the last twenty years post-dictatorship, was when Lavin took over the discourse of change, and that meant that in the second round Lagos managed to win just a difference of 30 thousand votes. Now NATO has practically no speech or proposal itself. Limited to lament Velasco access the page Frei command while the budget debate in Congress. And gets involved in splitting hairs about whether incorporated or not in a gay couple in television time. Question that bothers - and how! - The soul that breeds fundamentalism in their midst.

5) It is paradoxical that Marco is presented, in light of the figures, as the best option against Piñera Frei, on the stage of "second ballot." This is indeed the case, because the numbers indicate that he arrived in this instance, would get 37% versus 40% for Piñera, while in the case of Frei access to the second round (which is the most feasible alternative According to the survey CEP), it would reach the same floor, 37%, but would stand six points behind Piñera, which is marked by 43 percent. What irony of this whole story? The competitive framework is based largely on their ideological ambiguity in the substantive issues (the son of Miguel Enriquez was in favor of privatizing part Codelco and fear not, for instance, accompanying a candidate for the UDI to a public ...). It is no coincidence, for example, the survey says that 54% of Frei's supporters would be willing to vote for ME-O in the second round, and only 12% would give their vote to Piñera. While in the case of the followers of Marcus, things are much more divided: 39% would vote for Frei and 29% would vote for Piñera.